little – Cédric Walter Blog

Simulating survival and profitability of startups

Despite today’s digitization hype, most problems rather reflect small data problems than big data problems. In many contexts, data collection efforts are still costly or even impossible. A prime example is early stage investing in startups. Almost all data that would be relevant for applying AI is kept private by business angels that are reluctant to open their data vaults out of fear to lose their competitive edge. And even if they do so, available data is often little and of low quality. Simulations may help in such circumstances by showing a novel approach in which we simulated survival and profitability of early-stage startups that on average outperform professional human investors.

Here are some startups or groups working on that subject:

Prof. Dr. Ivo Blohm is Assistant Professor for Data Science and Management at the Institute for Information Management at the University of St. Gallen. How to apply AI for small data problems? Simulating survival and profitability of startups.

We investigate whether digital traces can be used to predict early stage startup survival. Based on common survival factors from the entrepreneurship literature, we mined the digital footprints of 542 entrepreneurs and their ventures. Using a context-specific text mining approach, we performed a bootstrapping simulation in which we predict 5-year survival for different survival rates that range from 50% to 10%. Our results indicate that we can predict 5-year survival with an accuracy of up to 91%. With this study, we will provide an evidence-based taxonomy of digital traces for predicting early stage startup survival, identify the most important digital traces for doing so and benchmark our predictive approach against the actual investments of 339 business angels.

Predicting the success of a startup company , Vrushank Shah, Oklahoma State University; Dr Miriam Mc gaugh, Oklahoma State University

Decissio is an online service that leverages artificial intelligence to optimize and bring data power to your investment decision making processes.

Artificial Intelligence Predicts the Success of Startups With Up to 80% Certainty, Using Publicly Available Data

Predicting Startup Failures Using Classification

Predicting new venture survival: A Twitter-based machine learning approach to measuring online legitimacy

Updating PHP5 to PHP 5.3.10 on Ubuntu

Thanks to Nathan Rennie-Waldock. you can have the latest PHP5 5.3.10 running in #Ubuntu Oneiric, Natty, Maverick and Lucid.

PHP 5.3.10 fixes critical remote code execution vulnerability

The vulnerability was introduced by the fix for a hash collision denial-of-service flaw

Proof-of-concept code that exploits this vulnerability has already been published online

Nathan Rennie-Waldock Personal Package Archives (PPA) is located at https://launchpad.net/~nathan-renniewaldock/+archive/ppa

Just run as root the following to use PHP 5.3.10

sudo add-apt-repository ppa:nathan-renniewaldock/ppa
sudo apt-get update 
sudo apt-get upgrade

Canonical should be a little bit ashamed to not deliver these security patches for the server edition! relying on individuals to provide the latest version of secure software is not promoting #Linux in enterprise.

Magnum Pleasure Hunt – creative advertising

A nice looking girl that is surely not eating a lot of ice cream :-), but the flash website is amazing (did say also like the girl??)

The idea behind this ad:

“The internet holds a lot of pleasurable things, but the ultimate pleasure remains eating a Magnum ice cream, now with hazelnut.”

Click on the picture of on the link below to play this little funny and sexy game http://pleasurehunt.mymagnum.com/

Client: Magnum
Agency: Lowe Brindfors, Stockholm
Production: B-Reel
Country: Sweden
Copywriter: Henrik Haeger
Art Director: Patrik Westerdahl / Petter Lublin
Designer: Ellinor Bjarnolf
Strategy Director: Oscar Erlandsson
Sound: Plan8